Impacts of future climate and land cover changes on landslide susceptibility: regional scale modelling in the Val d’Aran region (Pyrenees, Spain)

It is widely accepted that future environmental changes will affect rainfall-induced shallow slides in high-mountain areas. In this study, the Val d’Aran region located Central Pyrenees was selected to analyze and quantify impacts of land use cover (LULC) climate on regional landslides susceptibility. We analyzed 26 models EURO-CORDEX database focussing rainfall conditions. The IDRISI TerrSet software suite used create LULC maps. These two inputs were individually a combined way defining 20 different scenarios. All these scenarios incorporated physically based stability model compute susceptibility results showed both conditions considerably change future. daily increase between 14 26% assuming return period 100 years. This intensification precipitation produce an overall decrease condition study area. Regarding prediction, forest area significantly increase, while particular grassland, but also shrubs decrease. As consequence, improves, because root strength higher than grassland shrubs. When we impacts, positive effect larger negative influence changes. Hence, when combining aspects scenarios, improve.